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Text File | 1994-12-21 | 24.8 KB | 414 lines

## END OF BBS NEWS ┌────┐ ┌────┐ ┌─────────┐ ┌─────────┐ ┌────┐ ┌───┐ ┌──┐ ┌────────┐ └┐ ┌┘ └┐ ┌┘ └┐ ┌───┐ │ └┐ ┌───┐ │ └┐ ┌┘ ┌┘ ┌─┘ ┌┘ │ └─────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └─┘ │ │ └─┘ │ │ ┌┘ ┌┘ └┐ │ ┌┘ │ │ │ ┌──┐ │ │ │ └──┐ │ └──┐ │ └─┘ └─┐ │ │ ┌┘ ┌┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌──┘ │ ┌──┘ │ ┌───┐ │ │ │ ┌┘ ┌┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌─┐ │ │ ┌─┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌┘ │ └─┘ └─┘ │ ┌┘ └───┘ │ ┌┘ └───┘ │ ┌┘ └┐ ┌┘ └┐ ┌┘ └┐ │ │ └────────────┘ └─────────┘ └─────────┘ └────┘ └────┘ └────┘ └──┘ WEEK 16 1994 DR BOB PFE! AUTHOR FAVORITE By UNDERDOG TOUT SHEET Gordon Grieb --------------------------------------------------------------------- DETROIT 1½ Minnesota PASS PASS SAN FRAN 16½ Denver PASS PASS GREEN BAY 8½ Atlanta + Falcons - OVER PITTSBURGH 3½ Cleveland PASS PASS CHICAGO 6½ La Rams - Rams + Bears Miami 4 INDIANAPLS + Colts + Colts BUFFALO 1½ New Englnd - *Bills + Patriots San Diego 2½ NY JETS + *Chargers + Chargers WASHINGTON 2 Tampa Bay - Redskins - OVER ARIZONA 7 Cincinati - Bengals - Bengals KANSAS CTY 11½ Houston - Oilers + Oilers - OVER PHILLY 4½ Ny Giants - **Eagles + Giants La Raiders 7½ SEATTLE + Seahawks + UNDER Dallas 9½ NEW ORLEAN - Cowboys - Cowboys 4 - 7 7 - 5 **************** Dr. Bob Star Pick Performance ***************** *1 STAR **2 STAR Week 1 1 - 0 2 - 0 Week 2 1 - 0 0 - 1 Note: The Newsletter record posted Week 3 0 - 2 0 - 1 to the left, differs from the Week 4 0 - 0 2 - 1 900# results mentioned in the Week 5 1 - 1 0 - 1 Dr Bob tout sheet report Week 6 1 - 1 1 - 1 below. Dr. Bob does change Week 7 0 - 1 1 - 0 (add/delete /switch) his Week 8 0 - 1 1 - 1 newsletter picks by the end of Week 9 4 - 0 2 - 0 the week when the 900# picks Week 10 2 - 0 2 - 0 become available. Week 11 1 - 1 0 - 0 Week 12 1 - 0 2 - 1 Week 13 1 - 1 0 - 0 Week 14 1 - 1 0 - 1 Week 15 0 - 4 0 - 1 Week 16 1 - 1 0 - 1 TOTAL 14 - 13 13 - 9 The Tout sheet news report for Dr. Bob is not listed below since it did not make it to me this week. Dr. Bobs 900 schedule has been updated and is shown below. Since I will be out of town next week, it will be difficult to update the stats and tout sheet. Do not expect updated stats or tout sheet until next Wednesday. Included in this weeks update file is "drbob.17" which contains several Bowl game analysis and NBA matchups coming up. Good luck this week and have a safe holiday weekend. -- Gordon -------------------------------------------------------------------- MESSAGE: 1-900-903-7262 ONLY $15 PER CALL -------------------------------------------------------------------- Thur December 22 NBA/College Basketball Best Bets WED 5PM - THU: 5PM Fri December 23 NBA/College Basketball Best Bets THU 5PM - FRI: 5PM NFL Best Bets and Opinions for Sat FRI 5PM - SAT: 5PM Saturday, December 24 NFL Best Bets and Opinions FRI 5PM - SAT: 5PM Saturday Morning/Afternoon College B-Ball Sunday, December 25 Detroit/Miami Side and Total SAT 5PM - SUN: 5PM Alohas Bowl and NBA No Update SUN 5PM - MON: 1PM Monday, December 26 NFL Monday Night Side & Total MON 1PM - TUE: 1PM Plus NBA Best Bets Tuesday, Wednesday NBA & College BEST BETS Freedom Bowl TUE 5PM - TUE: 11PM NBA & College BEST BETS Independence Bowl WED 5PM - WED: 11PM <<<<<<<<<<< END OF TOUT SHEET NEWS >>>>>>>>>>>>> ## END OF TOUT SHEET NEWS ## PFE! GAME #1 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Cards with big edge on defense may get some help if Jeff George sits out. A broken pinky on the left hand will make it difficult to take snaps but he will likely tough it out with the help of some medication. Cards have benefited recently from turnovers (+12 last 5 games) and a weak schedule (Oilers, Redskins, Bengals). Cardinal defense is overrated as they have faced a meager bunch of offensive teams and will be tested here against passing attack of Falcons. Falcons would love to bust up the playoff hopes of Cardinals and get some revenge over last years season ending game where Cards whipped em 27-10 in a pickem contest. Flip a coin here. Pass. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** ATLANTA 20 Arizona (-3) 16: The Cardinals need to win to make the playoffs but needing to win is different from winning. Be wary of "must win" teams - if these teams were good they wouldn't be in a "must win" situation, would they? The Cardinals have not been good on the road with their three wins coming against Washington, Houston, and the Giants when they were in the middle of their 7 game losing streak. Only their win over Houston was by mo re than 2 points and I don't like them laying points here against a Falcons team that played hard last week in Green Bay despite having nothing to play for. The Falcons have covered 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog after a loss and I'll expect another good effort from them here. ## PFE! GAME #2 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Tough to say whether Bills will play with any enthusiasm this week. After being on top for so long, it seems like they will be totally deflated with no playoffs to play for. Bills defense is allowing an average of 27 points per game in last 7 games and that's how many points the Colts scored in Week 7 as the Colts won in Buffalo 27-17. Colts have slowed down a bit lately on offense and won't likely get that many points this time. This series has gone UNDER the total 15 of the last 23 matchups and that may be the way to go if anything. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** Buffalo 17 INDIANAPOLIS (-3) 16: The Bills reign above the AFC is finally over and it's tough to say how they will react in their season finale with nothing to play for. The Bills do have the revenge motive in this contest as they were handled by the Colts in Buffalo 17-27 earlier this season (Buffalo is 18-6 ATS in revenge, but 0-2 ATS this year). The selection her e is more a vote against the Colts than it is for the Bills. Indianapolis hasn't won back-to-back game all season and they have alternated wins with losses since week 4. The Colts are also just 2-10 ATS as a home favorite and it has been a long time since they've been favored in this series. If Buffalo has any pride they won't let themselves get swept by the Colts and they are still playing for a non-losing season. ## PFE! GAME #3 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Cowboys struggling a bit are a tough call here with Emmitt Smith out and not much motivation to play here. Giants have played well lately but did not do so well in earlier matchup where Cowboys dominated 38-10. Giants success has been against some weak opponents but with playoff motivation tough to go against. If Cowboys really want this game they'll have it but defense will have to step up as they may have more problems there then jerky offense. Not much value here that I can see. Pass. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** Dallas (-6') 27 NEW YORK GIANTS 13: Troy Aikman should be back to his old form by now and the Cowboys will expose the Giants for the bad team that they are. New York got crushed by the Cowboys in Dallas 10-38 and they'll have no say in the outcome of this game either. Dallas is 37-12 ATS (entering their Monday night game with the Saints) in games with Emmitt Smith in the lineup when they are not laying 13 points or more. The Giants do have a couple of trends favoring them here, however. New York is 21-4 ATS at home the week after winning a game in which they allowed 17 points or less and the streaky Giants are now 12-3 ATS under Reeves in all games the week following a win. ## PFE! GAME #4 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Packers have failed in last 8 of 11 trips to Tampa but did kick their butt at home this year 30-3 in week 4 with +3 turnovers. Bucs paying off big with 6 straight spread wins as they have surged recently winning 4 straight games including an upset win over the Vikings. Packers on the other hand have faltered a bit covering only 1 of last 6. But with this being a money game and the Bucs lapping it up against some relatively poor teams, I'll call for a return to reality and something closer to their earlier matchup with Pack winning by 14 or more. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** Green Bay (-5') 24 TAMPA BAY 17: The Bucs have now won 4 straight games and will be trying to avoid another 10 loss season. However, the Packers are playing with plenty of incentive themselves and they'll control the line of scrimmage in this contest as they did in their 30-3 victory over the Bucs in Green Bay. Before backing the Pack, it should be noted that they are 0-4-1 ATS the last two seasons after winning in each of the previous two weeks and they are 0-3 ATS in their last three road games. Those facts are what is keeping me from making this a stronger lean towards Green Bay. ## PFE! GAME #5 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Will back the hot Patriots who are on a 6 game run with solid defensive play. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** New England (pk) 20 CHICAGO 17: The Patriots continued to roll along last week as they blew out the 4 time defending AFC champions in their own stadium. Parcells masterful coaching is paying dividends down the stretch again and Parcells' teams are now 23-4 SU in the final 4 games of the season since '86. The Bears continue to win football games under coach Wannstedt and they have been especially good at home this year (5-2 ATS). Here are a couple of stats to keep in mind. Since Parcells' arrival, the Patriots are 3-7 ATS when favored and 15-6 ATS as an underdog or pick. ## PFE! GAME #6 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Eagles have hit rock bottom with 6 game slide against some tough opponents. Here they drop down in class big time to face the lowly Bengals. Expect a big shake up in the lineup here as the bench gets a shot for the Eagles but even they should be able to muster enough strength to beat Cincy. Looks like a great UNDER play to me with a smaller side play on the Eagletts. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** Philadelphia (-1) 20 CINCINNATI 16: The Eagles playoff hopes are over and now they must resort to playing for a .500 season. Philly has managed to beat the league's worst teams this year and I'll look for them to get past Cincinnati here. The Bengals once-improving defense has fallen down the last three weeks, giving up 31 points per game against 3 teams not known for offensive firepower (Pitt, NYG, and Ariz.). Philly is 50-21 ATS when their record is below .500, including 8-0 ATS the last two seasons. ## PFE! GAME #7 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Seahawks playing respectable ball as much improved QB Dan McGuire is certainly playing no worse then Injured Rick Mirer. 27th Ranked passing attack of Seattle will have its hands full with 3rd ranked passing defense of Browns. Browns may let up with previous big games against Dallas and Pittsburgh and not much playoff consideration as they are already guaranteed a berth. Both teams conservative play calling should make for a low scoring affair. This game is similar to the Houston/KC game last week where taking the Favorite and Hedging with the UNDER seem like a good play. Last week both plays almost hit until Houston fumbled on own 10 yard line late in 4th quarter. 5 of last 7 matchups have gone UNDER. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** CLEVELAND (-10') 24 Seattle 10: The Browns have had no problems beating lesser teams at home the past few years as they are now 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or more. Cleveland d is likely to up that mark against a Seahawks team that is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Raiders. Not only will it be tough for them to play at a high emotional effort for second straight week, but the Hawks also have found it tough to stay with quality teams on the road. Seattle lost by 15 points at Kansas City and by 20 points in San Diego and they are now just 4-14 ATS when visiting a team with a winning record. Cleveland is coming off an emotional game as well, losing to Pittsburgh last week, but they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season in games following a loss including a win at Dallas. I expect them to bounce back here as well. ## PFE! GAME #8 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** This is a playoff game for both these teams as the winner advances for sure. Raiders on 3 game win streak with a luck win last week over Seattle. Chiefs have struggled recently and may have gotten back some confidence against the Oilers last week. Taking the points seems wise in probable close finish. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** LOS ANGELES RAIDERS (-3') 23 Kansas City 17: The Raiders have had trouble with the Chiefs in recent years (1-9 SU) but Kansas City is not a good football team right now and they have been crushed on the road by winning teams once again this year. The Chiefs have lost by 14 points at San Diego, by 34 points at Buffalo, and by 17 points at Miami and they are now just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they've visited a team with a winning record. The problem is that the Raiders are just 2-10 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points and they are now 0-9 ATS after consecutive wins. The bottom line is that the Raiders are a better team and only an outstanding game by Montana will keep them from winning here. ## PFE! GAME #9 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Broncos just 1-5 this year as Home favorite face a resilient 6-1 Road Dog Saints. Saints impressive in moving the ball against Cowboys on Monday should have the Edge in this matchup. Denver is better off with a healthy Hugh Millen then an injured John Elway. That was proven last week as Millen came off the bench and immediately drove for a TD. But, I won't be surprised to see Elway get the start. Saints get my vote. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** *New Orleans 27 DENVER (-5') 23: The Broncos' John Elway will probably sit this one out and the Broncos will end the season with a loss after being eliminated from the playoffs by the 49ers last week. The Saints offense has discovered a running game in recent weeks to go along with their healthy passing attack lead by the resurrected Jim Everett. The Broncos defense is one of the worst in the league and will have a tough time shutting down the Saints' attack. New Orleans plays its best on natural grass as they are now 26-12 ATS on grass under coach Mora (4-1 ATS this year). Denver, meanwhile, is just 1-5-1 ATS at home this year and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at Mile High when laying more than 3 points. Despite their losing season, the Saints are playing hard under coach Mora and they'll end the season with a win and hope for next season. ## PFE! GAME #10 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** If Boomer plays then for sure I'll be on the Jets but otherwise use caution. Jets have lost 5 of last 6 against some pretty tough opponents and without Boomer, matchup pretty evenly with lowly Oilers. Regardless, expect a low scoring game that goes UNDER. 6 of 7 home games this year have gone UNDER 34 points for the Oilers. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** (Dr Bob had no analysis of this game. Probably forgot about it.) ## PFE! GAME #11 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** While Steelers may be due for a letdown with recent big games and a playoff spot locked up, this line (+3 1/2) seems to reflect that while giving them little respect for a 7 game win streak. Chargers struggling a bit with recent losses to Falcons, Raiders, Patriots while getting an expected win over the Jets last week. Chargers do have more to gain here as a win gives them a first round bye in the playoffs. Nonetheless, Pittsburgh has to make the trip and might as well play their game. I'll play the Steelers on paper but not with real money. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** SAN DIEGO (-3') 20 Pittsburgh 13: In a game in which both teams will be resting their banged up players for the playoffs, I favor the home team Chargers to get the victory. Pittsburgh's defense will relax a little after allowing just 10 points total the last two weeks. In the NFL, teams that allow single-digits in consecutive weeks have a tough time maintaining that intensity for a third straight week (they cover only about 35% of the time). An emotional letdown is especially likely after facing their biggest rival last week. San Diego looked pretty good last week and they are now 23-5 ATS under Ross if they covered the pointspread in their last game. However, the Chargers are also just 12-14 SU under Ross when facing a team at .500 or better (15-3 SU versus losing teams) and they are only 1-5-1 ATS the last two years when favored versus a team at .500 or better. ## PFE! GAME #12 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Skins have failed last 6 of 7 games with little help from a very tough schedule. With only 2 wins, Skins may be ready to lay down for an improved draft position as they are tied with the Bengals. But they are already playing their rookies and are not likely to make drastic lineup changes. Rams have lost 6 straight and may be playing their last game at Anaheim stadium. Neither team worth backing. Pass. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3') 26 Washington 20: The Rams' running game has struggled down the stretch but their passing game should prosper here against a Washington defense that allows a league worst 7.3 yards per pass. The Skins have lost 7 straight games and they are just 3-12 ATS on the road when not getting at least 6 points. ## PFE! GAME #13 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Miami just 4-10 as a home favorite recently and struggling late this season. They managed an expected win against the banged up Chiefs but get a big test against a balanced Detroit team that is playing very consistent ball. While folks keep waiting for Dave Krieg to have a bad streak, you must remember that his fumbles and miscues were often due to a lack of protection and a mediocre rushing threat. Now he even says this is the best line he has played behind and he has Barry to hand off to which keeps the defense honest. I for one will continue with the Lion streak and ask Miami to prove they're worthy of being favored here. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** *MIAMI (-3') 30 Detroit 17: The Lions are red hot with Dave Krieg at Quarterback but they may have gotten a bit too hot with their 41-19 win over Minnesota. Teams that travel after winning by 20 points or more are a low percentage play when getting 7 points or less from a team returning from a spread loss on the road. The Lions are also just 1-5 ATS when visiting a winning team after a victory. Miami has a history of poor finishes (12-28-1 ATS in their final 6 games since e '88) but they did manage to bounce back from their last loss by whipping the Chiefs at home in a nationally televised game. ## PFE! GAME #14 **************** PFE! AUTHOR Gordon Grieb *********************** Niners may take note of how the Cowboys lost Emmitt Smith and rest some of their big offensive stars if not most of the game then surely for the 2nd half. QB Warren Moon is very questionable with a knee injury and if he does play will certainly be affected by it. No line was posted as of Tuesday due to his status. Too many unknowns here but no good reason to back the Vikings. Pass. ***************** THE DR. BOB TOUT SHEET REPORT **************** San Francisco (no line) 27 MINNESOTA 20: The status of Vikings' quarterback Warren Moon is questionable but I like their chances of keeping this one close. The Vikings were humiliated at Detroit last Saturday but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog in games following a loss since Denny Green became the head coach. Also, Monday night home teams that lost their last game by 14 points or more are a perfect 11-0 ATS the last 12 years when facing a team that won their last game by 14 points or more. San Francisco will use this game to rest some starters and in a similar situation last season they lost 34-37 to the Eagles on the Monday finale as an 11 point favorite. The 49ers, however, are on as big a roll as possible and they have failed to slow down even when the situation called for a letdown, so I'll have to stay away from the game although I will still lean towards the Vikings to keep it close and an upset would not surprise me.